Where Does the Conflict Take Place

The conflict between China and Taiwan revolves around the island of Taiwan and the nearby Taiwan Strait, a narrow stretch of water about 160 kilometers (100 miles) wide that separates Taiwan from mainland China.

Taiwan is located in East Asia, just off the coast of China, and sits along important shipping routes in the Western Pacific. It’s not just about geography - this area is also important for global trade, especially in technology and semiconductors.

Since 1949, there have been two Chinese states in practice: the People’s Republic of China (mainland China, ruled by the Communist Party) and the Republic of China, which is based on Taiwan. Although the government in Taiwan still officially calls itself the Republic of China, most people around the world know it simply as Taiwan¹.

Picture: https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asien/china-taiwan-141.html

Historical Background

To understand the China–Taiwan conflict, we have to go back to the early 20th century, when China was in chaos. After the fall of the Qing Dynasty in 1911, the country became a republic, but warlords and foreign powers fought for control. Out of this instability, two major political forces emerged²:

• The Nationalists (Kuomintang/KMT), who wanted a modern, unified China,

• And the Communists, who wanted a radical transformation - turning China into a socialist state.

The two sides teamed up briefly during World War II to fight Japan, but once the war ended, they turned on each other in a brutal civil war². By 1949, the Communists, led by Mao Zedong, won control of mainland China and founded the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

The defeated Nationalists, under Chiang Kai-shek, retreated to Taiwan, taking 2 million people, government officials, and military forces with them³. On the island, they kept the name “Republic of China (ROC)”, still claiming to be the legitimate government of all China.

At that point, two Chinas existed:

• Communist China (PRC) on the mainland

• Nationalist China (ROC) on Taiwan

In the 1950s and 60s, Taiwan was under martial law, ruled by Chiang Kai-shek and the KMT⁴. The government was strict, anti-communist, and had one goal: reconquer mainland China.

During this time, Taiwan wasn’t a democracy - it was authoritarian, with tight control over media, speech, and elections. But as time passed, it became clear that retaking China wasn’t possible. After Chiang Kai-shek died in 1975, his son Chiang Ching-kuo took over, and the island slowly began to change politically⁴.

By the 1980s, Taiwan was economically booming and a new generation wanted freedom and reform. Under internal and external pressure, Taiwan lifted martial law in 1987 and began holding free elections⁴. Over the next two decades, it became one of Asia’s most vibrant democracies⁵.

Today, Taiwan has multiple political parties, a free press, and regular peaceful transitions of power. Many people in Taiwan now see themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese⁶.

Early on, most of the world recognized Taiwan (ROC) as the “real China.” Taiwan even held China’s seat in the United Nations until 1971, when things changed.

In 1971, the UN switched recognition from Taiwan to the PRC, meaning China (Beijing) now had the UN seat, including the Security Council position⁷. After that, most countries cut official ties with Taiwan to avoid upsetting Beijing.

However, countries like the USA, Japan, and many in Europe kept unofficial relations with Taiwan. The US passed the Taiwan Relations Act (1979), promising to support Taiwan’s defense, even without formal diplomatic ties - and not just out of goodwill⁸.

For the U.S., Taiwan has always had strategic value. It sits in a key location in the Pacific, right near shipping lanes, U.S. allies like Japan and the Philippines, and close to mainland China. If China were to control Taiwan, it would shift the military and economic balance in Asia.

During the Cold War, Taiwan was seen as a frontline against communism. Today, it’s about protecting democratic allies, keeping trade routes open, and deterring China’s influence in the region⁹.

Because of its importance to global tech (especially semiconductors)¹⁰, Taiwan is now even more central to the global economy - which is why the U.S. and others have strong reasons to help Taiwan defend itself, even if they don’t officially call it a country.

Renewed Tensions: Military Pressure and Economic Influence

In recent years, tensions between China and Taiwan have sharply increased, especially after a series of large-scale military drills by China near Taiwan. One major flashpoint occurred in August 2022, when U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. China saw this as a provocation and responded with unprecedented military exercises, including missile launches over Taiwan and naval blockades simulating an invasion scenario¹¹.

Since then, China has intensified pressure on multiple fronts. Militarily, it has increased fighter jet incursions into Taiwan’s air defense zone, staged amphibious assault drills, and deployed new landing barges near the Taiwan Strait. These moves are framed by Beijing as defensive, aimed at deterring "separatist forces" and foreign interference - particularly from the U.S.

But China's strategy isn’t limited to military means. In 2014, Taiwan was on the verge of signing a major trade agreement with China - the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA). The deal would have opened up many sectors in Taiwan to Chinese investment. However, it triggered massive protests known as the Sunflower Movement, where thousands of students occupied the Taiwanese parliament for weeks, fearing the deal would make Taiwan too economically dependent on Beijing and threaten its sovereignty. The agreement was ultimately shelved¹².

After this setback, Chinese leader Xi Jinping made it a personal priority to increase pressure on Taiwan, both through military deterrence and economic leverage¹³. Yet paradoxically, China remains one of Taiwan’s biggest trading partners and the largest buyer of Taiwanese semiconductors - a crucial industry where Taiwan is a global leader¹⁴.

Source: Global Taiwan Institute¹⁴

This creates a complex relationship: while Beijing seeks political control, it is heavily reliant on Taiwanese tech products, especially chips from companies like TSMC, which are vital to China’s own economy. For Taiwan, this interdependence offers some economic protection, but also highlights the high stakes of any escalation.Continued Tensions and Escalation.

Taiwan, in response, has strengthened its defense budget and expanded military partnerships, particularly with the United States, which supplies defensive arms under the Taiwan Relations Act. The U.S. maintains “strategic ambiguity”, officially recognizing the PRC but supporting Taiwan’s self-defense.

Ongoing Crisis

Today, the China–Taiwan conflict is seen as one of the most volatile geopolitical flashpoints in the world. While no war has broken out, the risk of miscalculation is rising. Both sides are preparing for all scenarios - and the international community is watching closely.

Taiwan continues to strengthen its defenses, increase military spending, and deepen ties with countries like the United States and Japan¹⁵. At the same time, public support for formal independence is growing in Taiwan, especially among younger generations. Yet leaders remain cautious, knowing that any move toward official independence could trigger a military response from Beijing.

For China, Taiwan is a core national interest, and reunification is described as inevitable¹³. Chinese leaders have not ruled out the use of force, and with rising nationalism at home, the pressure to act may grow.

Globally, Taiwan is more than a political issue - it is vital to global technology supply chains, producing over 60% of the world’s semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced chips. Any conflict would disrupt the global economy, affecting industries from automotive to consumer electronics.

Because of this, the crisis is not just about China and Taiwan - it has worldwide implications, and many countries are now adjusting their policies to both deter conflict and prepare for potential disruption.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59900139

Who Has Interests in the Conflict’s Outcome

Conclusion

The China–Taiwan conflict is a key node in global power politics. Many actors seek to shape the outcome, not necessarily to resolve the conflict, but to protect their strategic, economic, or ideological interests.

Sources:

¹ Chinese Revolution :https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/chinese-rev

² Two Major Political Forces: https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-fmcc-boundless-worldhistory/chapter/communist-china/#:~:text=The%20Chinese%20Civil%20War:%20Background,Expedition%20and%20curb%20Chiang's%20power.

³ Taiwan ROC: https://www.britannica.com/topic/history-of-Taiwan

⁴ Martial law: https://www.taiwan-panorama.com/en/Articles/Details?Guid=52792501-4fb1-421c-82df-332dbbceaf06&CatId=10&postname=The%20End%20of%20Martial%20Law- 20%20Years%20On&srsltid=AfmBOoqDJj5wLaKSJSQdmuRQy60Xvk6DlJiHya7cY0jqWbJWXzv1EcZR

⁵ Democracy Index: https://roc-taiwan.org/th_en/post/6470.html

⁶ Taiwanese: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/01/16/most-people-in-taiwan-see-themselves-as-primarily-taiwanese-few-say-theyre-primarily-chinese/

⁷ UN-Seat: https://www.ipac.global/campaigns/unra-resolution-2758-factsheet-what-you-need-to-know#:~:text=Until%20the%20passage%20of%20UNRA,do%20not%20accept)%20the%20principle.

⁸ Taiwan Relation Act 1979: https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th-congress/house-bill/2479

⁹ Frontline Taiwan: https://www.uttryckmagazine.com/2024/04/15/taiwan-on-the-frontline-of-authoritarian-expansion/

¹⁰Taiwan Importance: https://www.csis.org/analysis/silicon-island-assessing-taiwans-importance-us-economic-growth-and-security

¹¹ Nancy Pelosi visit: https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2022/08/how-pelosis-taiwan-visit-has-set-a-new-status-quo-for-us-china-tensions?lang=en

¹² CSSTA: https://www.csis.org/blogs/new-perspectives-asia/taiwans-cross-strait-service-trade-agreement-accept-or-forgo

¹³ President Xi: https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-gray-tactics-taiwan/

¹⁴ Trade Partners: https://globaltaiwan.org/2024/02/diversifying-trade-where-taiwan-stands-today-and-where-it-should-go-tomorrow/#:~:text=Taiwan's%20Top%20Trade%20Partners,focused%20on%20the%20Chinese%20marketplace.&text=Taiwanese%20goods%20imports%20are%20significantly,to%2020%20percent%20last%20year.

¹⁵ Defenses: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/chinas-military-build-indicates-it-serious-about-taking-taiwan