Where Does the Conflict Take Place?

The war is happening in Ukraine, one of the largest countries in Europe, located between Russia and the European Union (EU).

Ukraine’s size, location, and access to the Black Sea make it strategically important for both Russia and the West. It acts as a geopolitical bridge, and sometimes a battleground, between two major spheres of influence.

Fighting started in 2014, mainly in eastern Ukraine (Donbas), where Russian-backed separatists took control of parts of the region. Another hotspot is Crimea, a southern peninsula with key military and trade access via the Black Sea, which Russia annexed in 2014.

In February 2022, the conflict escalated into a full-scale war, spreading across much of Ukraine. Major cities like Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, and Kherson have been attacked. Russian missile and drone strikes reach far beyond the frontlines.

Even though the war is being fought inside Ukraine, its effects are global - causing food shortages, energy crises, and the displacement of millions.

Why Does Russia Want Control Over Ukraine?

Russia’s interest in Ukraine isn’t just about culture or shared history, though those play a role. It’s also about power, influence, and security.

1. Geopolitical Strategy:
   Ukraine is a buffer zone between Russia and NATO/EU countries. If Ukraine joins the West, Russia feels encircled and weakened. Control over Ukraine means military reach, economic influence, and access to warm-water ports in the Black Sea.

2. Historical Narrative:
   Russia sees Ukraine as part of its historical sphere. Leaders like Vladimir Putin have openly claimed that Ukrainian identity is artificial and that Ukraine “belongs” to Russia.

3. Preventing Western Influence:
   Ukraine’s moves toward the EU and NATO threaten Russia’s vision of a “sphere of influence” in the former Soviet space. Losing Ukraine to the West would be a major geopolitical defeat for Moscow.

To capture both sides, I will break down the three main points and the controversies they reflect.

1. Geopolitical Strategy: Ukraine as a Strategic Buffer Zone

For Russia, Ukraine plays a central role in its security and defense strategy. Historically, Russia has experienced multiple invasions from the West, for example, by Napoleon and Hitler - and views open, Western-oriented borders as a potential threat.

Ukraine as a Buffer Zone:

A militarily neutral or Russia-friendly Ukraine is seen as a protective barrier for Russia’s western border. However, if Ukraine were to join NATO or the EU, Russia would be directly adjacent to Western military structures, which is perceived in Moscow as “encirclement.”

Military Reach:

Control over or access to Ukrainian territory allows Russia to secure its military presence in the region, especially around the Black Sea. The port of Sevastopol in Crimea, for example, is home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet, a key base for military operations in the Mediterranean and the Middle East.

Economic Interests:

Ukraine contains important transit routes for gas exports to Europe. Russia uses energy exports not only as an economic resource but also as a political tool. An independent and Western-integrated energy system in Ukraine would threaten Russia’s leverage in this sector.

Conclusion:

From the Russian perspective, losing Ukraine to the West represents not only a symbolic defeat, but a real weakening of Russia’s influence and its sense of security.

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-war/

2. Historical Narratives: Shared Origins – Diverging Paths

Origins in Kyivan Rus’ – What Connects Both Nations

Both Russia and Ukraine trace their origins back to Kyivan Rus’, a powerful early medieval state that emerged in the 9th century in Eastern Europe, with Kyiv as its political and cultural center. It was one of the first major political structures in the region and helped shape the identity, religion, and legal traditions of the East Slavic peoples.

• In 988, Volodymyr the Great, the ruler of Kyivan Rus’, adopted Orthodox Christianity as the official religion, which deeply influenced the spiritual and cultural life of the region.

• Around the same time, Kyivan Rus’ developed the Russkaya Pravda, the first Slavic written body of law, which became a model for later legal systems in Eastern Europe.

For both countries, Kyivan Rus’ is a significant historical reference point, often seen as the shared starting point of their national histories.

However, in 1240, Mongol armies invaded and destroyed Kyiv, bringing an end to Kyivan Rus’ as a unified state. The Mongols, expanding their empire westward under leaders like Genghis Khan and his successors, sought to control trade routes and expand their influence across Eurasia. Their military campaign devastated many cities and shifted the balance of power in the region.

After the invasion, the territories that would later become Russia and Ukraine began to develop in different ways:

Diverging Developments: Russia under Moscow – Ukraine under Foreign Rule

After the fall of Kyivan Rus’, two power centers emerged:

Russia (Moscow):

• From the 14th century, Moscow gained strength and eventually freed itself from Mongol domination.

• In 1547, Ivan IV (Ivan the Terrible) declared himself the first Tsar of Russia, marking the beginning of the Tsardom of Russia.

• Moscow viewed itself as the heir of Kyivan Rus’, and after the fall of Byzantium, it adopted the idea of being the "Third Rome," with a mission to lead the Orthodox world.

Ukraine:

• The western territories of former Kyivan Rus’, including much of today’s Ukraine, came under the control of the Polish-Lithuanian Union (later the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth).

• Catholicism was promoted, while Orthodox Christianity was marginalized.

• Ukrainian nobles were often pressured to undergo Polonization, meaning the adoption of Polish language, culture, and religion.

The Cossacks – Between Autonomy and Pressure

In the 16th century, the Ukrainian Cossacks emerged in the southern steppes as independent warrior communities, fighting against Turks, Tatars, and at times Polish forces.

They saw themselves as defenders of Orthodox tradition. Initially, they received limited autonomy from the Polish crown, but over time, restrictions increased:

• Poland sought greater centralized control.

• Pressure to convert to Catholicism intensified.

• The Cossacks faced military limitations and social discrimination.

This led to growing unrest, especially under Bohdan Khmelnytsky, a prominent Cossack leader who organized a major uprising against Poland in 1648.

Why Did the Cossacks Turn to Moscow?

After several conflicts with Poland, the Cossacks sought a powerful ally who could:

• Protect their Orthodox faith,

• Guarantee their autonomy,

• And provide military support against Poland.

Moscow was a natural choice — as an Orthodox state, it was culturally closer than Catholic Poland.

The Treaty of Pereiaslav (1654) – Two Interpretations

• Ukrainian perspective: The Cossacks saw the treaty as an equal alliance. They sought military aid while retaining their autonomy.

• Russian perspective: The Tsar viewed the agreement as an act of submission, marking the first step toward integrating Ukraine into the Russian Empire.

In the following decades, the Cossacks gradually lost their independence, especially in the 18th century, when Russia dissolved the Zaporizhian Sich (the Cossack stronghold) in 1775.

After that, Ukrainian lands were fully integrated into the Russian Empire, and later became part of the Soviet Union (1922).

It was only after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, following decades of political repression and economic hardship, that Ukraine finally regained its independence. On August 24, 1991, Ukraine declared independence, confirmed by an overwhelming majority in a nationwide referendum held on December 1, 1991. This marked Ukraine's transformation into an independent, democratic nation, re-establishing the sovereignty it had lost centuries earlier.

Two Narratives Today

• Russian narrative: Russia sees Ukraine as part of the “Russian world” — connected culturally, religiously, and historically from Kyivan Rus’, through the Treaty of Pereiaslav, to the present day.

• Ukrainian narrative: Ukraine emphasizes its own path, shaped by periods of foreign domination (by Poland and Russia), and its struggle for autonomy. The relationship with Russia is often viewed as subjugation rather than unity.

Conclusion: History as a Field of Dispute

The divergent interpretations of historical events — especially the Treaty of 1654 — continue to influence the modern relationship between Russia and Ukraine.

For Russia, Ukraine is seen as a natural part of its historical and cultural sphere.
For Ukraine, its history demonstrates a distinct national identity, often shaped by foreign control and resistance.

This tension between shared origins and separate trajectories continues to define the complex relationship between the two nations today.

3. Preventing Western Influence: Ukraine and the Struggle for Spheres of Influence

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia began to view the territory of the former USSR as its “near abroad” - a region where Russia believes it should have special influence and the right to intervene.

NATO’s eastward expansion:

Since the 1990s, Russia has strongly opposed NATO's eastward expansion. From the Russian perspective, the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO is seen as a red line, posing a direct threat to Russia’s strategic balance with the West.

https://www.dw.com/en/talks-on-eastern-ukraine-conflict-to-resume-in-march-sources-say/a-60742427

Competition for spheres of influence:

The EU’s eastward expansion and free-trade agreements with Ukraine were interpreted by Russia as attempts to limit Russian influence in the region. This competition affects not only security but also economic interests, as Russia has attempted to establish an alternative structure through its own Eurasian Economic Union.

Symbolic loss:

A full integration of Ukraine into Western structures would demonstrate that a former Soviet country can successfully follow a democratic, Western-oriented path. From the Kremlin's perspective, this could serve as a model even within Russia itself, potentially posing a threat to its own political system.

Renewed Tensions and Ongoing Crisis: A Simplified Overview of the Russia-Ukraine War Since 2022

The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia on 24 February 2022 marked a turning point in the long-standing conflict between the two countries. Tensions had been rising since 2014, but the 2022 attack took the conflict to a new level. Before the invasion, Russia demanded that Ukraine never be allowed to join NATO, seeing NATO's eastward expansion as a threat to its security.

In late 2021 and early 2022, Russia gathered tens of thousands of troops near the Ukrainian border. While Western countries issued warnings and tried to negotiate, no agreement was reached. On 21 February, Russia recognized two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine. Just three days later, the full invasion began. Russian forces entered from several directions, including Belarus in the north, Crimea in the south, and the Donbas region in the east.

Russia claimed it was conducting a "special military operation" to protect Russian speakers and "denazify" Ukraine. But the international community widely condemned the move as an illegal and unprovoked war against a sovereign country. Ukraine declared martial law, mobilized its population, and cut diplomatic ties with Russia.

Key Phases of the War

In the first weeks, Russia tried to capture Kyiv, Ukraine's capital, but faced strong resistance. By April 2022, Russian troops retreated from the north. Evidence of war crimes emerged in towns like Bucha. Russia then focused on the southeast, especially the Donbas region and the port city of Mariupol, which fell in May 2022.

In late summer 2022, Ukraine launched surprise counterattacks in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. These offensives pushed Russian forces back and regained important territory. By November, Russia withdrew from the city of Kherson.

However, the war became more static in 2023. Both sides fought for small gains. One of the bloodiest battles was for Bakhmut, which Russia eventually captured in May 2023, but only after heavy losses. In June, Ukraine launched another counteroffensive, but this time made only limited gains due to strong Russian defenses.

In 2024, Russia regained the initiative and began a series of new offensives, especially in eastern Ukraine. They captured a few cities, like Avdiivka, but at great cost. Ukraine, in response, launched cross-border raids into Russia, including in the Kursk region. Meanwhile, drone and missile attacks increased on both sides.

Who Has Interests in the Conflict's Outcome?

Conclusion

This war is not just about two countries. It reflects deeper global tensions between democracies and authoritarian powers. The outcome will shape European security and global politics for years to come.